Housing market in the Netherlands in 2024

Many expats buy a house in the Netherlands to improve their living comfort and save on expensive rental costs. Are you considering purchasing your own property too? Then it's wise to do some research on the housing market in the Netherlands. After years of madness and sky-high house prices, the housing market now seems to be cooling down. What’s going on exactly on the Dutch housing market of 2024 and what are the forecasts? Should you buy a home, or should you wait? Read this article for up-to-date information about the housing market and smart tips to improve your chances of buying a house.

The property market in the Netherlands seems to be picking up stream in 2024. If we take a look at the number of homes for sale are increasing and available homes are again selling quickly. We’ll explain this with Dutch housing market data of Hypotheken Data Netwerk, NVM,  Kadaster, Rabobank, CBS and ABN Amro.

Since the all-time low of the Dutch housing market in 2013, house prices rose higher and higher. Especially the last years prices were sky-high and overbidding on a house was rule rather than exception. Also, in the first half of 2022 prices rose sharply at the housing market, with 10% compared to the year before. The average selling price of a house in Q2 2022 was 448,000 euros. 

Starting in 2024, the housing market in the Netherlands experienced a notable resurgence, with house prices picking up momentum despite the previous year's challenges. In 2023, the real estate sector witnessed a slight deceleration in prices and buying activity, largely attributed to an increase in interest rates. This monetary policy adjustment aimed to curb inflation and stabilize the economy, inadvertently impacting borrowers' affordability and dampening demand for housing. However, as the market adjusted to the new interest rate environment, buyer confidence gradually restored, leading to a revival in the housing market so far in 2024. Factors such as improved economic conditions, a persistent housing shortage, and robust demand, particularly in urban areas, contributed to the recovery of house prices in 2024, signaling resilience in the Dutch housing market.

Banks like ABNO Amro and Rabobank are projecting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Dutch housing market, expecting house prices to continue their upward trajectory, albeit at a modest pace. This expectation stems from a combination of factors, including sustained demand for housing, limited supply, and the stabilizing effect of the previous year's interest rate adjustments. Financial institutions anticipate that the market's resilience, coupled with ongoing economic recovery and supportive housing policies, will foster a conducive environment for gradual price growth. While mindful of the potential for macroeconomic shifts and policy changes to influence market dynamics, banks remain confident in the underlying strength of the housing sector and its capacity for sustained growth, albeit at a more tempered rate than in the past.

The flattening rise of the interest rates was a result of strong inflation.

• Although the Dutch economy grew strongly in 2023 and many people have jobs, unemployment has stabilized.
• Due to the rising of mortgage interest rates in the past years, people can borrow less for their maximum mortgage in the Netherlands. Prices seem to be rising, and people are starting to bid actively once again.  

Because of this, people are once again actively searching for housing in the Netherlands. Competition and prices are starting to rise again, which makes it a good period to start search for your desired house in the Netherlands.

At the same time, there are more houses for sale on the housing market in the Netherlands. Compared to previous years, the supply was 55% larger in Q2 2022. This increase in available houses is probably partly because people who bought a newly built house are more likely to put their current home up for sale earlier, because they are afraid that they won't be able to sell their house. 

It's also possible that the sale strategy on the housing market in the Netherlands is changing. The last few years it was common to first buy a new house and sell your own house second. Recently sellers are more likely to sell their old house first. This puts an end to the buy-then-sell strategy. After all, as a seller you don't want to end up with two houses and double housing costs.

The message that the housing market is cooling down is positive for potential buyers. However, there's still a housing shortage. The housing market in the Netherlands has been tight for years, with too little houses for sale and a lot of competition. 

• Few homes were built during the previous housing crisis and the construction of newly built houses has been under pressure due to the nitrogen crisis.
• Due to economic prosperity, high rental prices and low interest rates many people wanted to purchase a property in the Netherlands.

It will take time (and a lot of houses) before this shortage will be under control.

Despite the remaining shortage, overbidding on a house is decreasing. It's often unnecessary to make an offer above the asking price. And if people overbid, the amount is much lower than it used to be. That's a big difference compared to earlier this year. In the beginning of 2022, 80% of the houses was sold above the asking price. 

That's great news, especially if you want to buy your first house in the Netherlands. Now overbidding is getting less common, you need less savings to purchase a property. You can get a Dutch mortgage up to 100% of the market value of your house. All the extra costs purchase cost to buy a house and the amount that you overbid on the value of the house to win the offer, you’ll have to pay out of your own pocket. 

• Asking price: € 410,000
• Purchase price: € 465,000
• Appraisal value: € 440,000
• Maximum mortgage: € 440,000
• Savings needed: € 25,000 > the difference between the purchase price and the appraisal value

Beware that the amount of savings in this example doesn’t include the purchasing costs and financing costs you’ll have to pay when buying a house in the Netherlands (about 3 to 6% of the purchase price). This calculation example only covers the amount of savings needed for overbidding.

As we transitioned into the beginning of 2024, the housing market demonstrated resilience in the face of challenges encountered in the previous year. In 2023, the market saw a period of price stabilization and an uptick in interest rates, which led to speculations about a potential downturn. However, the early months of 2024 have painted a different picture, with housing prices beginning to rise again amidst a backdrop of stabilizing interest rates. This shift indicates a robustness within the housing market, suggesting that a crash is unlikely under the current conditions. The stabilization of interest rates has likely restored buyer confidence, encouraging investment and purchasing activities. Moreover, the slight increase in prices reflects a healthy demand, further dispelling fears of a market crash. The market's ability to adapt and the economic measures in place to support housing stability have played crucial roles in maintaining a positive trajectory, making a housing market crash an unlikely scenario in the near term.

In summary, the Dutch housing market is showing positive signs and house prices are expected to keep rising. However, nobody knows for sure what's going to happen on the real estate market. It's a scientific fact that economic trends and house prices developments can't be foreseen.

So, to buy or not to buy a house in the Netherlands? If you want to purchase a property and you can afford it, you should.

House prices move up and down, and the value of your house will probably increase slightly or stay the same in the near future. In the long term the value of your property will rise for sure. Besides the developments in house prices, buying a house will increase your living comfort and it's cheaper than renting. 

Because of the remaining shortage at the housing market in the Netherlands, a good preparation before you start your house hunt is important. It strongly increases your chances of buying a house. Follow these three tips to help you purchase your dream house:

• Hire a real estate agent: if your house hunting in a popular area, a realtor will give you a much better shot at actually buying a house. He or she has knowledge of the local housing market and knows in advance which houses will come on sale. With an estate agent you’ll be one up on your competition.
• Put in a good opening bid: take your opening bid into careful consideration (an estate agent can also advise you on this!). If your offer on a house is too low, you’re out. However, if you overbid too much, you're wasting your money.
• Book a free appointment with a mortgage advisor: it’s important to explore your mortgage options in the Netherlands in advance. This way you’re sure about your budget and you might be able make your offer more attractive by leaving out the financing clause. Want to know what’s possible for you? Book a free consultation with our experienced mortgage advisors.

Do you want to know more about buying a house in the Netherlands? Please read our article or sign up for our free housing webinar 'how to buy a house in the Netherlands'. We're happy to help you purchase your own property.